Denver Post Electricity industry in a power struggle
Already pinched by building costs and climate issues, the industry also takes a hit on Wall Street
By Matthew Brown, The Associated Press
17 Nov 08
"We have to have new (power generation) capacity at some point, or we'll have brownouts, blackouts," said Mary Novak, an economist with the consulting firm Global Insight. "The problem is, too many (utilities) are betting on delay."
Die Welt (Germany) Rettung aus dem Kanzleramt?
By Marco Dalan and Frank Seidlitz
17 Nov 08
Der Autobauer Opel leidet unter dem massiven Einbruch wichtiger Märkte wie England oder Spanien sowie der Schwäche auf dem deutschen Heimatmarkt. Die europäische Sparte des GM-Konzerns, die aus den Marken Opel, Vauxhall und Saab besteht, befindet sich nach massivem Personalabbau und einer grundlegenden Modernisierung der Werke und Restrukturierung der Prozesse aber eigentlich in einer stabilen Position. "GM Europa könnte ohne den Mutterkonzern General Motors mit den Marken Opel, Vauxhall, Saab und Daewoo gut überleben", sagt Christoph Stürmer, Automobilanalyst beim Prognose-Institut Global Insight.
Guardian (UK) Euro zone Sept trade in deficit, exports outlook poor
17 Nov 08
"Sharply weaker global economic activity seems highly likely to increasingly outweigh the beneficial impact of the euro retreating further to currently trade around $1.25," said Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight.
Mobile News (UK) Vodafone staff bonuses at risk
17 Nov 08
Watchers predicted the UK operation would not bear the brunt of the cuts, despite being one of Vodafone’s worst performing units. “In the UK there will be wastage cuts, but nothing drastic,” suggested Global Insight telecoms research analyst for Western Europe Peter Boyland.
Chicago Tribune Complexity, confidence issues dog investors, consumers, experts
By Gail MarksJarvis
16 Nov 08
Global Insight economist Nigel Gault says that no matter what stimulus is applied to the economy, at this point, "they can't prevent a recession. We think it will be the worst since World War II."
He envisions gross domestic product declining about 1.5 percent from the end of the second quarter 2008 through roughly a year later. He thinks a more serious recession is possible, saying a 3 percent drop could occur by the end of 2009.
And though he expects unemployment to peak at about 8.25 percent by the end of next year, it could go over 9.25 percent by the middle of 2010.
That would make the rate far worse than the 6.3 percent in the aftermath of the last recession. Gault notes that often in recessions, people give up looking for jobs and unemployment figures consequently don't reflect the full impact of joblessness.
This time, he said, unemployment numbers will rise sharply because people are so pressured by their debts that they can't give up looking for jobs.
....Based on U.S. housing and stock market losses, Gault figures net worth for Americans has declined by just under $8 trillion since 2007.
That was showing up in gloomy reports from retailers last week.
Daily Express (UK) Is Britain heading for recession or depression?
By Tracey Boles
16 Nov 08
We are believed to be in the first quarter of such a slump right now. Economists I have asked do not see the UK moving into a depression. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at thinktank Global Insight, says the authorities are going to throw “everything including the kitchen sink” at the economy (both here and globally) in a bid to prevent this nightmare scenario.
MarketWatch (US--Dow Jones) ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Housing starts expected to hit half-century low
Consumer prices falling at fastest pace in 60 years, economists say
By Rex Nutting
16 Nov 08
"Household formation has slowed noticeably as people losing their jobs or homes to foreclosures move in with relatives," wrote Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, U.S. economists for IHS Global Insight. It's "one more obstacle that will prolong the downturn in housing starts."
....Refining and chemical output should bounce back, "but the rest of manufacturing remains in a headlong retreat," wrote Gault and Bethune. The survey from the Institute for Supply Management and the regional surveys suggest output is falling rapidly.
Observer (UK) Is Darling set for a New Deal?: The Chancellor's pre-Budget report could take a leaf out of Roosevelt's book to shore up the economy, writes Richard Wachman
16 Nov 08
What matters now, says Howard Archer at Global Insight, is that we kick-start the economy to stop a recession turning into something nastier: 'Desperate times need desperate measures.'
Sidney Morning Herald (Australia) Pelosi sets conditions for car bail-out funds
16 Nov 08
A GM collapse alone would burden the government with as much as $US200 billion in costs associated with unemployment insurance and other programs after millions of vehicle-related job losses, according to a forecast by IHS Global Insight.
The Boston Globe Bay State business leaders assess the situation
16 Nov 08
Nariman Behravesh
Chief economist at research and consulting firm IHS Global Insight of Waltham and author of "Spin-Free Economics."
The single biggest challenge facing the US economy today is limiting the depth and duration of the recession we are in. This downturn is likely to be bad, with the unemployment rate rising to at least 8 percent by mid-2009 [it measured 6.1 percent in September]. With interest rates already low, and bank rescue packages already in place, there is not a lot more that the Federal Reserve Bank can do.
So, more fiscal stimulus is needed, to the tune of $150 billion to $200 billion, at a minimum. The biggest bang per buck will be achieved if the stimulus is delivered through extra spending on infrastructure and aid to cash-strapped state and local governments.
The single biggest challenge for New England is keeping its competitive edge in industries of the future such as high tech and biotech. This will mean providing tax breaks for companies in these industries to locate in this region. It will also require continued investment in education (kindergarten through college) and upgrading infrastructure (transportation, telecommunications). The short-term need for fiscal austerity should not be accomplished at the expense of these longer-term goals.
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